Simulated BCS Rankings Week Four: LSU Jumps Into The Fray



After a weekend somewhat lacking in true tests for the nation’s best, not much changed around the country in terms of how voters saw teams lining up for possible title bids.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 LSU Tigers
5 Stanford Cardinal
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But lurking underneath was a shift in a few key areas that allow the newest set of simulated BCS rankings to swap around a few key players, and set us up for an interesting stretch of weeks before the final BCS frame begins.

The biggest move is that of LSU’s which leaps from No. 6 to No. 4 this week, still trailing the top three from last week — Alabama, Oregon and Clemson.

How did we figure these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin and Billingsley
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with 56% accuracy

As the season has progressed the result is a better connected set of teams. There are ways to compare early games. That can help voters in the AP and Coaches’ polls, but really, those extra games help the computers make sense of a limited amount of data.

This increase in sample size has given LSU a strong early computer edge, as the Tigers collect the third-best computer ranking aggregate this week, behind only the Tide and Ducks.

On the opposite side of that discussion rests a team like Ohio State, still struggling mightily with its computer support and paying for it in these simulations, as the Buckeyes land at No. 7. But it’s still early, much can change.

For now, it seems as if another contender has entered the fray in LSU and one that would be especially dangerous when they meet Alabama in early November.

For now, however, here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the fourth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 23

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9851
2 Oregon Ducks .9367
3 Clemson Tigers .8442
4 LSU Tigers .7957
5 Stanford Cardinal .7910
6 Florida State Seminoles .7442
7 Ohio State Buckeyes .6909
8 Georgia Bulldogs .6047
9 Louisville Cardinals .5969
10 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5808
11 Texas A&M Aggies .5492
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5187
13 UCLA Bruins .5145
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4647
15 Washington Huskies .3761
16 Miami Hurricanes .3578



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