Better Know A BCS Computer: Kenneth Massey Ratings
[Editor's note: In August of 2010, BCS Know How took a look at each of the six BCS computers using all available information and a multitude of sources. Some formulas are more public than others. I aimed to make the most inclusive collection of facts about all of the computers, with a varying degree of success.]
Let’s step behind the curtain of the Kenneth Massey Ratings.
On his own site, Kenneth Massey explains his rankings as such:
“Massey’s BCS ratings are the equilibrium point for a probability model applied to the binary (win or loss) outcome of each game.”
Massey’s BCS computer rankings are simple in their methodology — after each week, the new standings should realistically explain what happened the previous weekend.
After all teams begin the season unranked, Massey begins assigning his rankings, weighing early season games slightly less than those that occur later on.
The ratings includes home field advantage, and by BCS rule do not include margin of victory.
In essence, Massey’s rating is quite simple — in the end the ratings measure a team’s wins and losses against the strength of the schedule they faced and where the game was held.
Massey’s strength of schedule is also simple in its belief that results and level of competition are implicitly related, and therefore dictate his ranking system.
Therefore, it hurts a team less to beat a poor team than to lose to a good team in the short run, but in the long run the schedule could hurt that team. It also benefits a team greatly to beat an evenly matched team.
Inputs to Kenneth Massey’s Ratings:
According to Massey, everything else is implicitly included in the outcome of the game.
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