Better Know A BCS Computer: Peter Wolfe Rankings

in Computer Polls by Asher Feldman — August 4, 2010 at 12:27 pm | 1 comment

[Editor's note: In August of 2010, BCS Know How took a look at each of the six BCS computers using all available information and a multitude of sources. Some formulas are more public than others. I aimed to make the most inclusive collection of facts about all of the computers, with a varying degree of success.]

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Let’s finish off the deeper look into the computer rankings by tackling one of the more mysterious ranking systems, Peter Wolfe’s Rankings.

At its most basic, Wolfe’s idea is that there is a certain likelihood of one team beating another. Although his formula is secret, he utilizes this idea through a “maximum likelihood estimate” of a victory by a given team.

Wolfe then rates teams against their likelihood estimate, basically actual outcome vs probability of that outcome occurring.

The ratings arise from comparing mutual opponents and weighing the location of the upcoming and previous games.

Wolfe’s ratings rate 730 schools to increase the number of probability outcomes he can produce, and helps account for FCS vs. FBS matchups and the like.

Overall, Wolfe keeps things pretty private, and doesn’t release rankings until the first BCS standings are released.

←Better Know A BCS Computer: Jeff Sagarin Ratings

BCS Computer Rankings Week One: Oklahoma Gets Help From the Computers →

Tags: bcs computer bcs formula College Football explanation maximum likelihood estimate Peter Wolfe probability outcomes