The drama had seemingly been sucked out of the final weekend of the college football season until we figured out that a borderline non-AQ BCS buster was still possible. Still many were wary.

But then things started falling Northern Illinois’s way. After the Huskies grabbed the MAC championship from Kent State’s clutches in overtime, they sat at home and watched UCLA and Texas lose. Then they saw the thing that proved most key — Nebraska get crushed by Wisconsin.

Those things, combined with the requisite boost the Huskies got for beating previously No. 17 Kent State put the Huskies at No. 15 this week. And as we learned these last few days, that was the threshold. Finishing ahead of the Big East’s BCS representative, No. 21 Louisville, Northern Illinois is Orange Bowl bound, where the Huskies will take on Florida State.

Elsewhere the tension was somewhat minimal. As expected, undefeated Notre Dame is on its way to the BCS title game, where the Fighting Irish will find SEC champion Alabama waiting.

Conference champions Wisconsin, Stanford and Kansas State found themselves in their anchor bowls, joined by at-large Florida — the beneficiary an automatic rule including the top-ranked AQ non-champion — and at-large Oregon.

All part of the BCS’s now teenage plan to combine bowl affiliations and numbers to rank and distribute games during bowl season’s final week. Worked out pretty interestingly this year. We’ve got one more of these ahead of us. It’s been fun, now let’s enjoy bowl season.

Here are the final BCS rankings of 2012:

Final BCS Standings — December 2nd

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • The glaring oversight is of course at No. 16, where NIU lands a key one spot above where they needed to be.
  • Many shared that omission, but shout out to Yesh Ginsberg, who stood out and correctly predicted that NIU would have a simple time qualifying for the BCS, which they did.

With the drama seemingly run dry in the previous two weeks, the next to last BCS rankings of the season holds few surprises — but there’s plenty to be found if you look close enough.

That simple equation we’ve been talking about — Notre Dame and the SEC champion for the BCS title game — is all but written in stone. With Notre Dame’s season-ending victory over USC, the Fighting Irish land at No. 1 in this week’s BCS rankings, and will land there again next weekend.

No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia will play in a de facto national semifinal game in the SEC Championship. Florida lands in the No. 4 spot just behind Georgia. But fret not Bulldog and Crimson Tide faithful, win the SEC and you’re in — much like it’s been these last few years.

Further down, No. 5 Oregon and No. 6 Kansas State lead a group of small changes in the BCS’s top 10 this weekend, as what was expected after a rivalry weekend full of ranked matchups whittled the field down.

So pretty bland at the top. But little further down the intrigue for yet another non-AQ BCS buster bid is in store.

Three teams — No. 17 Kent State, No. 20 Boise State and No. 21 Northern Illinois — are all within striking distance of the top 16. A spot inside the BCS’s top 16 will mean an automatic bid to a BCS this year, as the Big East’s champion will land outside the top 16, activating a clause in the BCS to include a deserving non-AQ team in the BCS process.

Although none of the three are in the mix this weekend, Northern Illinois and Kent State are set to battle for the MAC title next weekend, the winner hoping to get associated BCS bump with a win over another ranked team. A Kent State win might give the Golden Flashes just enough to claim that elusive BCS bid. Northern Illinois will need some help if they are victorious.

Boise State is doomed by its poor computer showing, and will likely not be able to crack the top 16.

Next weekend could also solidify most, if not all, of the BCS spots. Here is what’s in store:

• The ACC Championship Game will feature Florida State and Georgia Tech. The winner is headed for the Orange Bowl.
• The Big East will be decided Thursday when Louisville and Rutgers face off. The winner is guaranteed a BCS bowl bid.
• The Big Ten Championship Game will feature Nebraska and Wisconsin. The winner is headed for the Rose Bowl.
• The Big 12 will come down to Kansas State and Oklahoma. A Kansas State win over Texas gives the Wildcats the conference championship and a Fiesta Bowl bid. It also likely another Oklahoma win gives the Sooners at least an at-large spot. An Oklahoma win combined with a Kansas State loss gives Oklahoma a Fiesta Bowl bid with the conference title.
• The Pac-12 Championship Game will feature Stanford and UCLA. The winner is headed for the Rose Bowl.
• The SEC Championship Game will feature Georgia and Alabama. The winner is likely headed for the BCS title game. If Alabama wins, Florida is all but guaranteed a Sugar Bowl bid. If Georgia wins, either Alabama or Florida is likely Sugar Bowl bound.
• The MAC Championship game will feature Northern Illinois and Kent State. The winner could vie for a BCS bid, needing to finish in the top 16 to make a BCS bowl.
• As it stands, explore our projected BCS bowls. 

Here’s the seventh BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Seven — November 25th

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Less change than expected, certainly.

Let it never be said the BCS didn’t give us drama.

With a clear-cut, simple equation for the BCS title game seemingly resting on the table just a weekend ago, the events of late Saturday night threw the BCS back into chaos, and now promises us yet another drama-filled final two weekends of college football.

Losses by Kansas State and Oregon open the BCS up again and Notre Dame proves the one to take advantage, as the Irish claim their first-ever BCS No. 1 ranking in the sixth iteration of the rankings in 2012.

Alabama, thought to be out of the running just a week ago, is now squarely back in the title picture at No. 2, needing just to win out to get back to the title game again. In order to win out, however, the once-beaten Tide will have to contend with No. 3 Georgia, which claimed that spot in both polls Sunday afternoon.

Georgia’s spot outside the top two is a moot point if the Bulldogs can win next weekend and then beat the Crimson Tide. Georgia will be BCS title game bound if they beat No. 2 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

The SEC rounds out the top four with Florida, boosted by a strong computer ranking to No. 4. Florida is still hoping for some upset ahead of them, but have set themselves up nicely for a BCS bowl bid, either by virtue of their single loss or by the BCS selection process that would select the Gators for a BCS bowl if they finish as No. 3 and the SEC champion plays for the BCS title.

Now-once-beaten Oregon and Kansas State land at No. 5 and No. 6 respectively, with Oregon hampered by an already poor computer aggregate before their first loss and Kansas State bolstered by computer support that didn’t waver much despite a tough loss to Baylor.

The SEC is back at it again at No. 7, as LSU grabs the distinction as highest-ranked two-loss team in the nation. Just behind the Tigers sit the newly top-10 Stanford Cardinal. Stanford lands firmly inside the top 10 after a victory over Oregon this weekend.

Texas A&M restarts the SEC conga line at No. 9, with No. 12 South Carolina rounding out the unprecedented presence of the SEC in the BCS top 12.

Florida State still languishes at No. 10 despite huge support on the poll side, with Clemson equally getting hammered by  the computers.

So. Two weeks sure to be drama-filled and heart breaking for some remain. We’re far from done with the BCS, the season or the various implications that will be in store for the weekends to come. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout these final few weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the sixth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Six — November 18th

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Some good, some bad. Top four, which are the important ones, were good. A mixed bag moving down. The real thing to key on is Florida State’s continued lag. It’s real and it’s here to stay unless the Seminoles can top the Gators.

The streak is officially on life support. For the first time in seven years, we could have a team from outside the SEC win the BCS national championship game. That’s the result of a weekend that set the BCS standings on shuffle with just three sets of these remaining.

The Big 12′s Kansas State claims the top spot in the fifth BCS rankings of the 2012 season, followed by No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Notre Dame.

Support as the No. 1 team in both polls is not enough to bring Oregon the coveted No. 1 spot, as despite being ranked No. 2 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls, Kansas State uses a near-perfect computer score to claim the top spot.

Notre Dame too grabs strong computer support, but can’t overcoming the difference between themselves and Oregon to grab the No. 2 slot. The Fighting Irish are definitively on the outside looking in on the title picture, and will need either the Wildcats or Ducks to drop a game in the coming weeks to get a chance at the national title.

It’s not until No. 4 Alabama, fallen from its perch after a crushing loss to Texas A&M, that we see the SEC’s footprint. And though Alabama’s appearance foretells an unprecedented group that follows — six squads from the conference occupying the spots from No. 4 to No. 9 — a bigger-picture reality is now clear.

Without some real help, the SEC could be locked out of the title game, that much is clear. The unbeatens ahead of Alabama and its SEC compatriots have too strong of a foothold with just three weekends left in the year. A conference that battle tested its champions week-in and week-out while seemingly able to produce one emergent team from a heap might have beaten up on itself a little too much in 2012.

But as we learned this weekend, you can take nothing for granted, and nothing is for certain. We’re far from done with the BCS, the season or the various implications that will be in store for the weekends to come. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout these final few weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fifth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Five — November 11th

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Good week. 12 for 12.

Winning finally paid for Oregon this week, as the Ducks finally make an upward move in the fourth BCS standings of the season, rising one spot, from No. 4 to No. 3 and past Notre Dame.

Oregon continues to trail No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Alabama, but Kansas State’s position is precarious at best.

Gains in all three components of the BCS — the Harris Poll, Coaches’ Poll and BCS computers — allowed Oregon to sneak past the Fighting Irish and the Ducks can now set their sights on the Wildcats.

Already ahead of Kansas State in the two human elements, the Ducks will look to their schedule and some computer help to make up the ground they need to get into the top two slots and the berth in the national title game that comes along with it. The distance that separates the two teams now is the .09 advantage the Wildcats enjoy in the computers through the fourth BCS standings.

Georgia rounds out the BCS top five, taking the spot of LSU, which would have been the story of the weekend had the Ducks not put away USC and finally grew their support to the point where the Ducks finally saw a growth in support and a shrinking of rankings number.

An interesting group of teams follows the Bulldogs — one which includes the twice-beaten Tigers. Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Florida State, and Louisville land in an area enviable by most — an area of BCS bowl eligibility. Sure, only two SEC teams can be BCS bound, and one of them is likely to be Alabama, but the teams that land in the top 10 with just four sets of these remaining will jockey to the season’s end.

Undefeated Louisville continues to loom, in at No. 9 this week, while Oregon State and Oklahoma round out the top 12. Clemson and Stanford land inside the all-important top 14, the threshold for BCS eligibility, exasperated this year by the glut of SEC squads among the nations’ best.

Four weeks in and four weeks to go, no questions are solidly answered. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 4th

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Good until 11. Again. Thought the lack of strength from Oregon State against Arizona State would knock them down one, but steady week-to-week.

Three weeks into the BCS standings and we’re set up for the kind of controversial finish the BCS is accustomed to creating. In the waning years of the system, we might as well be used to this by now.

Oregon, a team that has done nothing wrong, is once again jumped in the BCS rankings this week, as Notre Dame claims the BCS’s No. 3 spot. Oregon’s position is unchanged from last weekend, when they trailed Florida and Kansas State, but with Florida dropping a big game to Georgia, many might have expected the Ducks to see a one-spot bump.

Instead, Notre Dame, the victor in a key battle with Oklahoma, leaps past Oregon.

Quietly, Kansas State is the new No. 2 team after Florida’s loss, and is now comfortably ahead of the Ducks. Not a distance that Oregon cannot make up in the coming weeks, but one that is surprisingly large given the disparity of the rankings in the polls — where Oregon is a sturdy No. 2 and Kansas State is a sturdy No. 3.

LSU rounds out the top five, staying just ahead of resurgent No. 6 Georgia. Florida, the Bulldogs’ victim, lands at No. 7.

Then it gets a little nutty. Teams from here on down are in desperate need of some help to move up, and are well on the outside looking in on the national title picture. South Carolina, on the strength of a huge boost from the computers, lands at No. 8 despite a lower ranking in the human element.

Florida State, the more convincing favorite of the pollsters in this ranking area, lands at No. 9, just ahead of No. 10 Louisville, up big from last week’s No. 16 ranking.

One-loss Oregon State falls from No. 7 to No. 11 after suffering their first loss to Washington, but stays among the top-12 on the strength of still-impressive computer rankings. Oklahoma rounds out the top 12.

A third iteration of the BCS and we’re already looking at controversy and intrigue. Let’s find out how it all plays out. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the third BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Three — October 28th

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • A weaker showing from last week. Mostly swaps — LSU and Georgia the most notable.

Try as it might, Oregon can’t seem to catch a break. Undefeated and taking care of business so far in 2012, Oregon slips a spot again in this week’s BCS standings, as Kansas State jumps to the No. 3 spot in the latest BCS rankings.

An interesting set of circumstances led to the Wildcats’ jump past the Ducks. Because of Kansas State’s blowout victory over West Virginia, the Wildcats were able to get a big bounce in both the polls and the computers. Already with a sizable lead in the computers over Oregon, the Wildcats made up the difference in the polls that they needed to just slide by the Ducks in the second BCS rankings.

For its part, Florida was able to retain the surprising No. 2 spot it claimed in last week’s first BCS rankings, in fact bringing its BCS score up with an increase in human polls and computer support.

So Oregon lands at No. 4, behind two teams that are behind the Ducks in both human elements, which make up two-thirds of the BCS formula. Can the distance be made up? The Ducks will be afforded the opportunity to make up some ground in the computer rankings in the coming weeks, but it remains to be seen what potential impact victories over BCS No. 9 USC and BCS No. 7 Oregon State could have. This will be the intrigue and controversy of the BCS for the next few weeks at least.

Further down the BCS rankings, Notre Dame remains a steady No. 5, with LSU hot at its heels at No. 6. Oregon State, Oklahoma and USC all jump one spot with South Carolina out of the way, while Georgia, Mississippi State and Florida State round out the top 12.

We’re all set up for the controversy we’ve become accustomed to when it comes to BCS rankings. Let’s find out how it all plays out. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the second BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Two — October 21st

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Solid across the top. Let’s look at spots 10-12. We projected a Mississippi State-Georgia-South Carolina finish. We got Georgia-Mis.s State-Florida State-South Carolina at 10-13. MSU just missed bumping the Georgia, and South Carolina just missed bumping Florida State.

While you might not agree, you at least have to marvel. Once again, the BCS rankings are ruled by two SEC teams, as No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida lead the way in the first BCS rankings of the 2012 season.

How did they do it? Well, a combination of ways. It was clear to just about anyone that Alabama would be atop these first set of rankings, and they pulled in an impressive first-week .9761 score, showing a wide-spread belief that Alabama is the team to beat.

Oregon, which captured both No. 2 rankings in the Harris and Coaches’ polls gets bypassed by a hungry Gators squad, which enjoys the nation’s best computer rankings. Oregon, on the other hand, gets just the nation’s sixth-best computer score, giving it too little to hang ahead of the Gators.

Further down the spread, we get our first glance of a Big 12 school, as Kansas State lands at No. 4. A strong rebound into the top four computer scores allowed the Wildcats to stay ahead of Notre Dame, which lands at No. 5.

Our first one-loss squad is unsurprisingly LSU, coming off of a great victory over South Carolina, landing at No. 6. Those same Gamecocks land at No. 7, seeing the steadying affect of the computer rankings keep their BCS dreams afloat for the time being.

Undefeated and surprising Oregon State is the beneficiary of some strong computer support at No. 8 despite a lacking level of support for an undefeated squad from an AQ conference. The Beavers are trailed by strong one-loss squads USC and Oklahoma to round out the top 10.

We’re in the home stretch now, believe it or not. Just seven weeks remain. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the first BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week One — October 14th

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Well, other than seeing the Ducks bypassed by the slimmest of margins, a solid week to start. Never fun to have the mix at the top. But solid. Take it as you will.

The first real moving weekend of the college football season certainly proved a strong primer for the first BCS standings of the season — due out next week — as losses from top squads opened the way for teams such as South Carolina, West Virginia and Florida to make their way up in the latest simulated BCS rankings.

And, though the arrangement of teams is changed, the makeup remains overwhelmingly SEC-based, as the conference lands three of the top five teams in the latest simulation. Of course, the biggest story is the sudden upward jump of South Carolina, which bounds to No. 3 this week on the strength of a victory over Georgia.

West Virginia, which had languished a bit with lacking support across the board, sees a nice bump with teams moving out of the way in front of the Mountaineers, as West Virginia lands at No. 4.

Every team continues to trail an increasingly strong No. 1 Alabama team, which collects by far the heaviest support across the board on the week. One place where the Tide did not dominate, however, is in the computers. The technical aspect of the BCS favors a different SEC squad, the Florida Gators, which land at No. 5 with the nation’s second-best computer support.

No. 6 Notre Dame barely edges out the Gators for the best computer support in the land, grabbing first-place votes in two of the five available computers, while Florida grabs one. Oregon and Alabama each grab one first-place vote, but do not enjoy the complete support across ratings systems that the Gators and Fighting Irish do.

With just one weekend before the release of the first BCS standings, we’re beginning to collect a nearly complete picture of the BCS standings to come.

Available now are the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, Harris Interactive Poll, and five of the six computers — good enough to call this simulation 94 percent complete. Peter Wolfe will be the lone holdout, releasing his first set next week.

We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the five available polls to not only keep extra transparency, but also to give an extended view-point on the rankings. Take that as you will. The formula for the human elements remains intact.

Just one week until the first BCS rankings, here’s the best look we’ll have at the BCS until then.

Check out the full simulation worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:

BCS Score = (Harris Interactive Poll Score/2825 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/125)/3

Here are the simulated rankings after week six:

Simulated BCS Standings — October 8

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Despite seeing wavering support in the polls after choosing a bad time to underwhelm voters, LSU has gained support where they needed it most — to climb one spot to No. 3 in the latest simulated BCS rankings.

The Tigers continue to trail the overwhelmingly No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon, but with the SEC building upon its computer strength, LSU has seen an important rise in support.

The SEC, in fact, claims four of the top six spots in this week’s simulation, after Stanford’s loss and Kansas State’s bye week translated into room to move up for both South Carolina and Georgia. Combined with No. 10 Florida, the SEC boasts half of the top 10 in the simulation.

Notre Dame is already making some BCS noise, as they land at No. 7 in the latest simulation. As always, the Fighting Irish need win nine games and finish in the top eight to automatically receive a BCS bowl bid. A finish in the top 14 and nine wins would make them BCS eligible and almost guarantee an at-large selection.

With just two weekends to go before the first official BCS release, these simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting first look at the BCS picture.

Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and two of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 56 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley, Jeff Sagarin and the Colley Matrix, for what we’d call a 56 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.

We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the four available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact while subbing the AP Poll for the Harris Poll.

The first BCS rankings will be available later this month, but for now, this will have to do.

Check out the full simulation worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:

BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/100)/3

Here are the simulated rankings after week five:

Simulated BCS Standings — October 1

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