Projected BCS Rankings: Auburn Rewarded Heartily in Second BCS Standings

 
 
 
 

Update: The season’s second BCS standings have been released. Take a look HERE. To see the most recent projections, head over HERE.

Three straight Saturdays, three straight chaotic days.

With a newly crowned BCS No. 1 Oklahoma taking on Missouri in primetime, the curse of No. 1 continued as Oklahoma followed Alabama and Ohio State on the path of the nation’s top teams being upset on a national stage.

Oklahoma had been rewarded for its tough early-season schedule with the BCS’s top spot when the first rankings were released last weekend, but seemingly as soon as the Sooners had been nominated for that top spot, they lost it again with the shocking loss to Missouri.

The prime time meeting in Columbia was the icing on the cake of a day that featured huge match ups from around the country that will have a big effect on tomorrow’s BCS standings.

Unbeaten Auburn, faced with a real test against equally blemish-free LSU, used a great performance from Cam Newton to become the SEC’s only undefeated squad and take control of the SEC title race.

Oregon — who was second in the first BCS rankings last weekend — looked like the No. 1 team the human polls believe them to be, and manhandled UCLA on Thursday night 60-13.

Other unbeatens — Michigan State, TCU and Utah — had conference tests to pass, and did so, with varying degrees of ease, but still kept their undefeated seasons intact.

So what does that mean for the BCS standings?

Well, when Oklahoma took the top spot in the inaugural BCS rankings last weekend, it surprised some, but was exactly what the six BCS computers ordered, as they gave tons of love to the Sooners as their favorite team.

Now that the Sooners have fallen, who will be there to eat up that computer love?

Boise State and Oregon already had the love they wanted from the human element, but saw their computer rankings sorely affect their BCS average when the rankings were released. Boise State (7th best computer average) and Oregon (8th) had poor computer showings, but should see those numbers improve.

LSU had the second best computer showing last week, but they lost as well.

The answer is Auburn. The Tigers came into the weekend with a .900 computer average, and will see the combination of Oklahoma’s loss and their victory over the No. 2 computer team, LSU make that computer ranking shine.

Oregon and Boise State will likely be more convincing No. 1 and No. 2 in the human elements, but yet again, their spots in the BCS will be put in jeopardy by the likely No. 3 team Auburn’s new-found computer love.

The question will be how much of LSU’s .980 computer average Auburn can make up. And if the Tigers do jump to No. 3 in the human polls, by what margin will they be behind Oregon and Boise State?

Boise State might hurt the most from their bye week. Oregon took UCLA to town. Auburn beat LSU, an undefeated SEC team. Which do you think the pollsters are going to reward most highly?

Boise State will likely not get that No. 1 spot. In fact, they’ll likely again see themselves at No. 3 come Sunday after their bye week. So between Oregon’s human poll love and Auburn’s computer love, which will persevere?

Oregon needs help. Tons of it. Collecting all of the first-place votes from the voters won’t be enough (they will not do that).

Their computer average was a measly .710 last week. Even at .800 that may not be enough to hold off the charge from Auburn (they could do that).

Here’s what it might come down to: Auburn’s two major victories, Arkansas and South Carolina, both also won on Saturday. Oregon’s two major victories came over Arizona State and Stanford. ASU lost to California. Stanford beat Washington State.

Which looks better? That’s right, Auburn.

Tomorrow’s No. 1 will likely be the Auburn Tigers. The margin will be paper-thin. .0100 may not even separate the two.

But Auburn is going to miraculously pull this off. Their computer average will be in the .960-.970 range. And with just .910 shares from both polls (third place), they’ll have enough to top the Ducks.

So with all of that in mind, here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 24th)

Rank Team
1 Auburn Tigers
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Boise State Broncos
4 TCU Horned Frogs
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Michigan State Spartans
7 Alabama Crimson Tide
8 Oklahoma Sooners
9 Utah Utes
10 Ohio State Buckeyes
11 LSU Tigers
12 Wisconsin Badgers

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30 Comm

 
  1. [...] Football, Oregon Ducks Football, PAC-10 Football, Top 25 College Football Poll TweetAccording to bcsknowhow.com, the Auburn Tigers will take over the No. 1 spot when the new BCS poll is released tomorrow. [...]

     
  2. Josh
    2010-10-24
    00:39:40

    BTW, ASU did play and they looked terrible. They were at Cal and got crushed by a team that got spanked by USC the week before. The only good thing outside of the Duck's schedule is that Syracuse beat West Virgina after the Huskies beat them. The Ducks haven't played UW, but they will, at home, where they tend to win, and win big. Trying to look ahead a bit, if Oregon can win at USC, which there is definitely no guarantee of that (which scares me as a Duck fan) then gets a reasonably favorable home run after that, the Ducks would have agreat chance at holding onto the #1 rating which they should have after OU's loss

     
  3. Bittersweet News
    2010-10-24
    00:41:04

    [...] Projected BCS Rankings: Auburn Rewarded Heartily in Second BCS Standings | BCS Know How Originally Posted by JSHD Our Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 10 allies will be all too willing to join in on this "the SEC is rigged" narrative with us. You guys pushed the wrong fan base too far. Now it is war. Reply With Quote [...]

     
  4. bcsknowhow
    2010-10-24
    00:54:33

    Thanks for that catch Josh, slightly embarrassing. Unfortunately, UW looked like a doormat against Arizona...

     
  5. Larry
    2010-10-24
    01:20:15

    Pure and simple garbage. 1/3 computer, 2/3 human is the formula. Oregon leads all human polls and is ranked #2 by the BCS, The team that is number one then loses and the #4 team passes them because they beat an undefeated team at home by a touch. I'm so sick of the SEC and their "entitlements" with the computers. No way Oregon should be #2. They could win out and still be #2... why? Because people who KNOW football rank them #1, people who program computers rank them behind teams they already beat (Peter Wolfe) Just a stupid system. Thank goodness it's only week 8.

     
  6. MarcAntony
    2010-10-24
    01:43:51

    Auburn should be #1 in the BCS. They have two more wins (4) against current top25 opponents than any other team in the nation.

    Now Oregon has looked great and they will have their opportunity to move up as their schedule improves, but for now, Auburn has absolutely earned the top spot after demolishing the LSU defense today. They knelt the game out on the goaline rather than punch in another style-points TD against the battered and beaten LSU defense.
    Auburn outgained LSU by 300 yards - wow.

     
  7. Larry
    2010-10-24
    02:55:32

    No way Marc

    Oregon outranks them in total offense, defense, turnover margin, special teams, passing and rushing yards.

    Oregon blows out teams and Auburn survives against them. Yes, Auburn has won three games against ranked opponents, but all three have been at home. In fact, it you look at the Auburn schedule carefully you will see that they play only 4 road games all season out of 12. The two road games they've played were against mediocre teams and the total margin of victory is six points.

    I wonder how they would do if they played even half their games on the road.

    So, Oregon blows out every team they play including a top 12 BCS team, is number 1 in all the human polls number 2 in the BCS, blows out the team that blew out Texas.

    The number 4 team in the polls overtakes them because they defeated an overrated LSU team that used the fluke miracle of an extra man on the field to beat Tennessee (who Oregon blew away on the road)? I thought this was about the best team in the land not the team that keeps the SEC brand at the top of the polls no matter how absurd it looks.

    Just another example of how screwed up the BCS system is.

     
  8. AJ
    2010-10-24
    03:05:40

    "they beat an undefeated team at home by a touch. "

    HAHAHA they DESTROYED LSU!

    The score doesn't tell the story. Look at the stats man!

     
  9. aj
    2010-10-24
    03:07:28

    "The two road games they've played were against mediocre teams"

    LOL!

    Kentucky and Miss. St. are QUALITY WINS!

    10 games with each and Oregon loses half of them.

    Play in the SEC man!

     
  10. aj
    2010-10-24
    03:09:34

    "defeated an overrated LSU team"

    300 more yards against THE #4 DEFENSE IN THE COUNTRY!

    450 RUSHING YARD AGAINST THE #4 BEST RUSHING DEFENSE IN THE COUNTRY!

    Are you in denial or what?!

     
  11. Micah
    2010-10-24
    03:22:46

    @ Larry
    Auburn plays in the SEC, Oregon plays in the Pac-10. The only reason Oregon is running all over these teams is because they play in the Pac-10. Auburn gained over 300 yards on an LSU defense that was the Top 5 in the nation. I'd like to see Oregon play in the SEC, they would never survive.
    Oregon's Schedule Auburn's Schedule
    New Mexico Arkansas State
    Tennessee Mississippi State
    Portland State Clemson
    Arizona State South Carolina(Top 25)
    Stanford(Top 25) ULM
    Washington State Kentucky
    UCLA Arkansas(Top 25)
    LSU(Top 25)
    Auburn has a tougher schedule, no doubt. And you talk about how Oregon blew out UCLA, who blew out Texas. Well, sorry to tell you, but Texas lost to Iowa State, so that isn't a very good argument on your part. Auburn put up 65 points on an Arkansas team that took Alabama, the #1 team in the nation at the time, to the brink. Do you know how how it is to put up 65 points in SEC play? It is unheard of. Auburn scored the most points in an SEC game in history. And the thing is, when it comes to Auburn's QB and Oregon's QB, Cam Newton wins all the way. He's already on pace to shatter SEC records. He's already surpassed Tim Tebow for single season QB rushing records, HALF WAY through the season. If you can't stop Cam Newton, you can't stop Auburn, and no one has yet. Plus, Auburn doesn't like to run up the score as it seems Oregon likes to. Auburn got the ball inside the 10 today in their win against LSU at the end of the game, and the kneeled down. I'm not trying to say Oregon tries to run up the score, but really what I'm trying to say is that just because you score more points, doesn't mean you're the best. You have to beat the best before you can be called the best, and Auburn has beaten better teams that Oregon so far, no doubt. And by the way, Auburn has to play Alabama in Tuscaloosa, so don't say Auburn has an easy road schedule. Plus, one of those "mediocre" teams is a Kentucky team that beat South Carolina, which is a team that beat top ranked Alabama. Moral of the story is, I'll believe Oregon deserves the #1 when they withstand the last part of their schedule and stay undefeated. Plus, I don't understand what the big deal is, anyway, if you're #2, you're going to be in the National Championship anyway.

     
  12. Micah
    2010-10-24
    03:25:27

    Couldn't agree with you more AJ. To be the best, you have to play the best, and running up the score doesn't help you any and doesn't make you look the best, especially when it really is against mediocre teams.

     
  13. Joe
    2010-10-24
    05:40:15

    Why is beating LSU a big deal? I guess because they scraped the Tennessee team that Oregon demolished at Neyland...

     
  14. thepar
    2010-10-24
    05:42:19

    THE BCS(BS) POLL IS A TOTAL SHAM<ITS TIME THE NCAA DID THEIR JOB AND STOP THE FRAUD THAT IS NOW CALLED THE BCS!! TIME FOR A REAL CHAMPIONSHIP RAN AND CONTROLED BY THE NCAA,NOTCONTROLLED BYCOMPUTORS(bullshit in bullshitout).TIME FOR THE NCAA TO SET UP A PLAY OFF,TIME FOR IT TO SLECT WHAY SCHOOLS WILL GET INTO THE PLAY OFF,JUST LIKE THEY DO IN ALL OTHER COLLEGE SPORTS,STOP THE FRAUD<CREATED BY THE SEC!!!

     
  15. Andy
    2010-10-24
    06:24:43

    As a Duck fan I agree that Auburn has played a tougher schedule so far.
    Oregon is not running up the score against bad teams. If you watch the games you will see that the backups have played a ton of minutes this year. The Ducks scored 59 points in the first half against New Mexico and didn't break a sweat. I would love to see Auburn vs Oregon in the NC game.
    Overrated teams:
    LSU, ND, OKL, Missouri, Miss ST, USC trojans, and Mich ST. I only say ND because people in the media still seem to value a win over ND as a good win.
    Underrated:
    TCU, Utah, Ariz, and Ala.

     
  16. Coastal Duck
    2010-10-24
    08:33:33

    Duck fans - take a step back and look at, as a neutral observer, Auburn's win over LSU.

    AU's Cam Newton just vaulted himself into Heisman trophy front-runner - looks like a man among boys - not only does he tote the rock, he is a pretty fair passer, as well.

    It's hard to assess their defense as they gave up 40+ a week or so ago.

    Very impressive team, taken as a whole.

    If they and the Ducks were to win out, it would be the most intriguing NC game in recent memory.

     
  17. Chris
    2010-10-24
    09:05:22

    Auburn will loose when they go to Tuscaloosa...

     
  18. David
    2010-10-24
    09:30:44

    "Auburn will lose when they go to Tuscaloosa." Maybe, because Alabama is a very good team. But either Auburn OR Alabama would beat the Ducks. So would Kentucky, LSU, Miss State, or Georgia. Probably Jacksonville State would give Oregon all they could handle. The South takes football seriously.

     
  19. JT
    2010-10-24
    09:48:27

    Chris, come back to Earth and stop living in Fairy Tale Land.

    Isn't AU's record in T-Town 4-1?
    Not to mention they shut down the team that stomped then-No. 1 Alabama by 14 points? (That would be the SC Gamecocks, in case you forgot)

    Auburn is still not a perfect team. Win/loss yes, but still not quite where they need to be. The pass D is still suspect. However, the front 4 on the D-line (Fairley especially) have been pulling their weight big time this season.

    And with Cam Newton already shattering the SEC single-season rushing QB record with 4 GAMES left to play, I don't see how anyone can stop AU. He's on pace to win the Heisman. And who doesn't love a team that was averaging 6.7 rush yards per play against the BEST rush D in the SEC? (LSU was only giving up 83 rushing yards a game).

    442 rushing against the SEC's best rush D? And one player put up half of those rushing yards?

    Oregon is a good team. There's no denying that. But attempting to say that their win over Tennessee was a quality win is asinine. Probably the SEC's most troubled team. The program has been in shambles the past few years, and Dooley will need at least 3 seasons to get it back where it should be. (If they keep him that long.)

    Oregon has a major test coming this week at USC. We'll see what happens there.
    But please don't try to deny the fact that AU has beaten more quality teams thus far. Want a list?
    MSU - Current #24
    Arkansas - Current #23
    South Carolina - Current #21 (Who beat No. 1 Alabama)
    LSU - WAS the No. 6 team
    Kentucky - Unranked, but still beat SC the week after they dropped Bama

    Who has Oregon beaten? #9 Stanford?
    A UCLA team who beat a now 3 loss Texas (who managed to beat ranked Nebraska?)

    I think it's pretty clear who's had the tougher schedule. I'll see you Ducks fans at the NC....if you make it that far.

    WAR "CAM" EAGLE!!

     
  20. Sam
    2010-10-24
    10:16:30

    @Andy

    You truly are an ignorant idiot.

    *****NEWSFLASH******

    There are good football teams outside of the south. The SEC is a great conference, but give me a break. LSU is NOT a good football team!

     
  21. Sam
    2010-10-24
    10:17:37

    Sorry @ Andy, that was directed to @ David

     
  22. DuckFanInSD
    2010-10-24
    10:22:11

    The folks complaining about how the computers rate the Ducks need to remember that the computers are not allowed to use margin of victory in their formulas.

    Jeff Sagarin has the Ducks at #6 in the BCS version of his formula (Missouri is #1) but in his Predictor formula (which includes margin of victory and mirrors opening Vegas lines) the Ducks are a clear #1. According to Sagarin, the Ducks would be favored by 8.5 in a neutral-site game against Auburn.

    The Ducks don't need to worry about the computers at this point. Their remaining games are against the #10,19,20,21, and 45 in the computer rankings. Auburn has 11,41,69 and 93 left. They still have 1-AA Chattanooga left to play. Even with an SEC Championship appearance, the average of their remaining five games is much lower than Oregon.

    Ducks need to focus on winning. The computers will take care of themselves.

     
  23. Jean-Paul Valley
    2010-10-24
    11:26:30

    Here's the deal: Auburn & Oregon are going to play for the BCS national championship. It doesn't matter who's ranked 1&2 today; what matters is who will win that matchup. I suggest that no one with a brain the size of peanut would bet more than $1.00 against Auburn. The fact is: this is Auburn's year. Auburn IS the best team in the nation. Anybody want to put $100.00 on Oregon?...lol

     
  24. Joe
    2010-10-24
    11:57:28

    Auburn is quite good. Oregon is quite good. The idea that Auburn is clearly better because they are in the SEC is unfair. I seem to recall Alabama talking a lot of smack before Utah whipped them silly a couple years back. The SEC East is shaky. Tennessee is weak...but still a play away from beating LSU. Auburn is potentially better because Gus Malzahn is a crazy genius and Cam Newton is a beast. But Oregon can play with Auburn and could well beat them. It's a good game if it happens.

     
  25. walfredo
    2010-10-24
    12:04:17

    Oregon fans- RELAX. Diehard Duck here- at the end of the day if Auburn runs the table and beats Alabama they are going to end up #1. No why this doesn't matter? The other unbeatens are getting no respect. Oregon with #1 human poll ranking and Auburn running the table and finishing #2- can't be passed by Missoury, MSU, BSU, TCU, Utah group waiting in the wings. If Auburn loses- then Oregon moves to #1. If Auburn wins out Oregon is assured #2.

    Of course none of this matter if UO doesn't take care of business- but the really do control their own destiny at this point after the Oklahoma loss.

     
  26. Jakey
    2010-10-24
    12:06:13

    @Jean-Paul

    Could you please explain how "this is Auburns year" is a fact? I think you may be confused that opinions are facts...and I'm willing to bet AU doesn't even make it to Glendale.they play in Tuscaloosa at the end of the year and the Tide aren't going to lose 2 conference games this season. powers that be will make sure Bama is ranked 1 or 2 on the very last BCS and i can only hope the Ducks or Broncos pound them into the ground like Utah did in the sugar bowl two years ago.

     
  27. JoshDuck
    2010-10-24
    12:17:22

    Thanks DuckFan for the numbers. It always amazes me how much people skew the facts when making (often weak) arguments about their teams. While both sides are guilty of doing this on this post, lets get a few things straight:

    aj-
    Miss St is almost a "quality win" if you consider quality to be a improving but still inconsistent team playing in a down conference. They have been a punching bag for 30 years. Kentucky is by no means a "quality" win. Every bottom half pac-10 team would beat them. They beat an always over rated south Carolina team in an obvious trap game after the ol' ball coach & co had just spent the week being patted on the back, not practicing. LSU is horrible, and while they were 6-0 (Mcneese st???) it has taken them multiple miracles to get there. Tennesse is plain awful though.

    SEC/People who haven't actually watched a duck game-

    The ducks do not 'run up the score' on teams. In fact, they really haven't had to press offensively after half time this season. Thomas, James, and the 1's have been pulled in the 1st half or early 3rd quarter in all but 3 games this season.

    The Oregon offense defense and special teams score points in bunches. The offense plays at a much faster pace any other team. Once the damage is done and the game is at hand, they put in the reserves and milk the play clock a little more between snaps.

    SEC teams milk the play clock on almost every play. For some reason, the conference loves games where each team gets 40 snaps, and the scores from the games are 17-9. You can sleep through most SEC games.

    The exception maybe being when Auburn & Arkansas lit up the score board. I believe the score of that game was more in part to poor defense than great offense.

    The bottom line? To this point Oregon or Auburn are worthy of the (worthless) week 2 BCS ranking. Auburn's Cam Newton has taken over as the heisman favorite, and has been spectacular. The Tigers are undefeated.

    No body moves the ball like Oregon, and their Defense leads the nation in turnover margin.

    These are exciting times for both schools. Sadly to say though, Auburn will not stay unbeaten. They may escape Georgia & Chattanooga, but they will lose big to Alabama. Not to mention the Title game (if they can make it)

    Oregon has a much tougher schedule ahead. When they beat USC by 30+ next week, the computers will come around to Oregon.

    Ducks vs Tigers would be a great NC matchup. I would take Oregon vs ANY SEC team this year. The Ducks would beat any of the by 21 or more points.(to run up the score of course) It will be interesting to see what the BCS does with a bunch of 1-2 loss SEC.

    GO DUCKS!!!

     
  28. cam4heisman
    2010-10-24
    13:52:46

    it's not like Auburn does not know how it feels to get screwed by the BCS. USC played Reggie Bush all year and in the title game, and after NCAA ruled that he played illeagly for that season we still do not get metioned. I think that year we could have beat Oklahoma and gave USC a close game even with Reggie Bush

     
  29. Chris
    2010-10-24
    16:18:22

    Great post, JoshDuck!

     
  30. claude gatherum
    2010-10-24
    16:37:08

    so called power teams / #I LOST # 1 LOST # 1 LOST AUBURN ? OREGON ? LETS PUT THE BEST TEAM # 1 BCS. WHATA JOKE ////////