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Projected BCS Rankings: Important Positioning At Stake in Sixth BCS Standings
Update: The sixth BCS standings have been released, take a look HERE
A week who’s defining characteristic was that the top three teams in the BCS were sitting at home watching the action should have spelt for a dreary Saturday in college football.
And yes, the day was mostly upset free, however the penultimate weekend in November did not pass without one good upset and the threat of many more.
Texas A&M pulled of the shocker of the night, beating the previously assumed Big 12 favorites Nebraska 9-6 on the power of field goals alone, to give the BCS its major shake of the week.
Other teams, like Ohio State, LSU, Michigan State and Arkansas all had to work to avoid upsets of their own, but got out of the weekend with just the losses already attached to their names.
So what does it all mean for tomorrow’s BCS standings?
Well for the second straight week, not a whole lot, although we do have a top-ten upset to deal with following the weekend’s action.
Spreads will again be affected, although not nearly as much as they were last week. Expect Boise to gain a smidgen of the gap they saw between themselves and TCU last weekend, but the distance should be about the same.
LSU and Stanford should be safe at No. 5 and No. 6 even though the Tigers had a ton of trouble with Ole Miss, while Stanford cruised by California. But after that things will get a little iffy.
The No. 7 spot Wisconsin has held down the past few weeks should be safe, although the Badgers’ fears about Ohio State creeping up to catch them despite a head-to-head victory will become even more straining, as its likely that the Buckeyes will be right at their heels.
Of course this is important because in the event of a three-way tie for the Big Ten title, the BCS standings will act as the tiebreaker, sending the winner to the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten champs.
The key to Wisconsin’s continued lead on the Buckeyes will need to be human poll support. If the Badgers falter in that area, with the relative strength of the Buckeyes’ remaining games, the Badgers could be in trouble. This week, with emphasis put on the results and the ease with which the Badgers won compared to the Buckeyes, they should do enough to stay ahead.
With Ohio State already in front of Nebraska in both polls, its likely that the Buckeyes will not see the gain they might have hoped for after a victory over a top-25 opponent on the road.
Expect the Buckeyes to grab Nebraska’s vacated No. 8 spot, followed rather closely by new Big 12 BCS positioner Oklahoma State, fresh of an easy victory over Kansas.
Alabama, Arkansas, Michigan State and Oklahoma should all vie for spots 10-13 while staying inside the BCS eligibility bubble for this week.
So with all of that in mind, here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 6:00 ET on ESPN:
Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 21st)
| Rank | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Ducks |
| 2 | Auburn Tigers |
| 3 | TCU Horned Frogs |
| 4 | Boise State Broncos |
| 5 | LSU Tigers |
| 6 | Stanford Cardinal |
| 7 | Wisconsin Badgers |
| 8 | Ohio State Buckeyes |
| 9 | Oklahoma State Cowboys |
| 10 | Alabama Crimson Tide |
| 11 | Arkansas Razorbacks |
| 12 | Michigan State Spartans |
←Calm Before the BCS Storm During Week 12 Should Not Go Unnoticed
BCS Implications Worksheet Post-Week 12 →
4 Comm
2010-11-21
01:50:23
How can you say Ohio State has more impressive remaining games than Wisconsin? Northwestern and Michigan are both mid-Big Ten, 7-4 teams coming off bad losses. Both games are at home. But unlike Michigan, Northwestern actually has a win over a "better" Big Ten opponent (NU over Iowa). I don't understand why the sports media keeps saying OSU has some better end of the year schedule.
2010-11-21
01:51:19
Put this on the wrong post, sorry.
2010-11-21
06:51:31
@CB
This idea is OSU has more impressive remaining games is not just some subjective creation of the sports media. Look at the computer polls involved in the BCS process. If you go to the authors websites you will see that 5 of the 6 BCS computer polls of ranked NU significantly lower than UM last week. If Jeff Sagarin's updated rankings are any indication that distance likely remain relatively unchanged.
The only poll used in the BCS that ranks NU higher than UM was the Billingsley's Report. This is likely because Richard Billingsley uses the previous year's records in his calculations. NU was 8-5 in 2009 while UM finished 5-7.
2010-11-22
13:23:22
As of last night, Northwestern is ranked *higher* than Michigan in the BCS rankings.
It's unreasonable given the weight of evidence - even if some computers still rank Michigan higher - to seriously call the games "impressive". They're playing almost mirror teams: 4 losses, mid-Big Ten, mid-range Bowl game, both games at home, both teams have serious flaws.
The media *does* create the idea that OSU has some expectation of a bounce from their remaining schedule. It's unjustified.