Projected BCS Rankings: TCU and Boise State Fight For Position in Fifth BCS Standings

in Recaps Weekly Update by Asher Feldman — November 14, 2010 at 12:16 am | 1 comment

Update: The fifth BCS standings have been released, take a look HERE.

This weekend was supposed to be all about conference tests. And it was, although many of those tests prove much harder than many had expected.

Five of the BCS’s top ten teams and the top three teams — Oregon, Auburn and TCU — were all faced with the prospect of an upset and persevered, although it took more effort than even the smartest of pundits predicted.

Two more top BCS teams, Ohio State and Stanford, also had to turn things on in the second half to pull away from their opponents and got away with some spotty play.

In fact, despite the rash of near-upsets, the only two top-15 team were upset, the first being Iowa, who lost for the fifth time in six meetings with a very game Northwestern team who became bowl eligible.

Utah also fell victim to an upset — their second loss in as many weeks — to a surprising Notre Dame team. Utah, who was No. 5 in the BCS just two weeks ago, could fall out of the top twenty when the pollsters come together tomorrow.

So what does it all mean for tomorrow’s BCS standings?

Well, not much really.

The real difference in tomorrow’s BCS standings will be the gaps between teams.

For example, last weekend, Oregon and Auburn were separated by a mere .0027 points. Much of the lead Oregon lost last weekend was because TCU ate up some of its computer support after its victory over Utah.

That computer support should return to Oregon this week after they beat a well-computer-supported California team and TCU’s best victory looks worse after Utah lost to Notre Dame.

No. 3 TCU will also see a sharp drop in their own lead over Boise State as pollsters will again be questioned as to which non-AQ team is truly better and which would deserve to replace either Oregon or Auburn should they lose.

TCU is sure to suffer not only because of Utah’s loss and their own struggles, but because of Boise State’s convincing performance on the road against Idaho.

Expect TCU’s nearly .06 point lead over Boise to all but evaporate in tomorrow’s standings, and expect to see TCU and Boise State come close together once again.

LSU should have no trouble holding on to their No. 5 spot tomorrow after a big victory over Louisiana Monroe and victories by their two best opponents Auburn and Alabama.

The group No. 6 through No. 8 should be close once again. Wisconsin, who scored 83 points on Saturday, will be hurt by Iowa’s loss to Northwestern, although that victory by the Wildcats give the Badgers another good team to beat in the eyes of the computers when they play at the end of this month.

Stanford’s best win remains against Arizona, who took a tough home loss to USC (who the Cardinal have also beaten) on Saturday, while Nebraska has both Missouri and Oklahoma State to thank for victories on the night.

That group will be decided by the thoughts of the pollsters combined with slight changes in the computers, read outs which will likely be close yet again.

Ohio State should also creep closer into that group of three this week after their victory over a very game Penn State team.

Alabama’s victory over previously ranked Mississippi State should be enough to bring them back into a group with Oklahoma State and Michigan State, and likely jump one if not both of those teams.

So with all of that in mind, here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 14th)

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