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Simulated BCS Rankings Week One: LSU and Alabama are on top again
Update: An earlier version of these simulations contained a mistake in the summing of the computer rankings. Check out the full worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:
BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/75)/3
Nearly nine months after the 2011 season ended with Alabama walking off of the field at the BCS National Championship Game holding the crystal football high, the Crimson Tide return with a bang, leading our first set of simulated BCS rankings convincingly and almost unsurprisingly.
| Simulated BCS Rankings | |
|---|---|
| Rank | Matchup |
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide |
| 2 | LSU Tigers |
| 3 | Oregon Ducks |
| 4 | USC Trojans |
| 5 | Oklahoma Sooners |
| Scroll down for more | |
The Tide completely dominated previously top-10 Michigan on college football’s inaugural weekend of 2012, opening up the season in a way that a defending national champion would be expected to.
On the strength of that victory, and strong hype heading into the season, the Tide enjoyed wide-spread praise from the polls available, and sit comfortably atop the simulated BCS rankings after the extended first weekend of the 2012 season.
LSU takes the No. 2 spot in an eerily similar situation that ended the 2011 season, with the two SEC teams leading the way.
USC, which enjoyed a similarly easy victory over Hawaii, is in at No. 4 after losing some support in both the AP and Coaches’ Poll by not playing the caliber of team that the Crimson Tide were able to decimate and lacking in the computer rankings available.
No. 3 Oregon and No. 5 Oklahoma round out a top five of teams already well within striking distance of the top two spots should things get unpredictable come the midseason or later, as they tend to do.
These simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting look into the future.
Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and three of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 50 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley and Jeff Sagarin, for what we’d call a 50 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.
We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the three available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact.
The first BCS rankings will be available in October, but for now, this will have to do. Enjoy!
Here are the simulated rankings after week one:
Simulated BCS Standings — September 4
| Rank | Team | BCS Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | .9895 |
| 2 | LSU Tigers | .9245 |
| 3 | Oregon Ducks | .8767 |
| 4 | USC Trojans | .8704 |
| 5 | Oklahoma Sooners | .7824 |
| 6 | South Carolina Gamecocks | .6620 |
| 7 | Michigan State Spartans | .6528 |
| 8 | Arkansas Razorbacks | .6437 |
| 9 | Florida State Seminoles | .5241 |
| 10 | Georgia Bulldogs | .5230 |
| 11 | West Virginia Mountaineers | .4821 |
| 12 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | .4762 |
| 13 | Wisconsin Badgers | .4745 |
| 14 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | .4325 |
| 15 | Clemson Tigers | .4151 |
| 16 | Michigan Wolverines | .3600 |
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←Post-Season BCS Rankings Simulation: Alabama A Non-Unanimous Choice For No. 1
