Simulated BCS Rankings Week Five: SEC, already dominating, lands four of top six in latest simulation with Alabama at No. 1

 
 
 
 

Despite seeing wavering support in the polls after choosing a bad time to underwhelm voters, LSU has gained support where they needed it most — to climb one spot to No. 3 in the latest simulated BCS rankings.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 LSU Tigers
4 Florida State Seminoles
5 Georgia Bulldogs
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The Tigers continue to trail the overwhelmingly No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon, but with the SEC building upon its computer strength, LSU has seen an important rise in support.

The SEC, in fact, claims four of the top six spots in this week’s simulation, after Stanford’s loss and Kansas State’s bye week translated into room to move up for both South Carolina and Georgia. Combined with No. 10 Florida, the SEC boasts half of the top 10 in the simulation.

Notre Dame is already making some BCS noise, as they land at No. 7 in the latest simulation. As always, the Fighting Irish need win nine games and finish in the top eight to automatically receive a BCS bowl bid. A finish in the top 14 and nine wins would make them BCS eligible and almost guarantee an at-large selection.

With just two weekends to go before the first official BCS release, these simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting first look at the BCS picture.

Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and two of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 56 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley, Jeff Sagarin and the Colley Matrix, for what we’d call a 56 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.

We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the four available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact while subbing the AP Poll for the Harris Poll.

The first BCS rankings will be available later this month, but for now, this will have to do.

Check out the full simulation worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:

BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/100)/3

Here are the simulated rankings after week five:

Simulated BCS Standings — October 1

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9660
2 Oregon Ducks .8548
3 LSU Tigers .8443
4 Florida State Seminoles .8038
5 Georgia Bulldogs .8022
6 South Carolina Gamecocks .7950
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .7386
8 Kansas State Wildcats .7268
9 West Virginia Mountaineers .7005
10 Florida Gators .6378
11 Texas Longhorns .6355
12 Oregon State Beavers .5228
13 TCU Horned Frogs .4077
14 USC Trojans .3867
15 Stanford Cardinal .3719
16 Oklahoma Sooners .3437

 


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