Simulated BCS Rankings Week Four: No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Florida State bound past LSU
As the first BCS standings release moves closer, the smallest of changes begin to have increasingly large ramifications in the simulated BCS, just like they do as the season draws to a close every year.
|Simulated BCS Rankings|
|1||Alabama Crimson Tide|
|3||Florida State Seminoles|
|Scroll down for more|
Not surprisingly, Alabama remains atop the latest set of simulated BCS rankings, however, as in the polls released this weekend, Oregon is the new No. 2 team. The Ducks jump comfortably ahead of LSU, which falls from No. 2 to No. 4 after a nail-biting victory over Auburn over the weekend.
Florida State finally sees the computer and poll support expected of them thus far after a big victory over Clemson, leaps up to No. 3.
After Stanford lands at No. 5 with continually strong computer support, a tight-knit group occupies spots six through nine, with less than .0200 points dividing the four teams.
South Carolina, Kansas State, Georgia and Notre Dame make up a contingent of teams that features two strong early season SEC squads and two teams that made the most noise over this past weekend, as Notre Dame and Kansas State are the beneficiaries of wins over ranked foes.
Notre Dame is once again in the national conversation with BCS implications. If the Irish can stick inside the top 14 and register nine wins they are all but guaranteed a BCS bid. A top-eight finish assures the Irish of an automatic at-large berth.
As they have been in weeks past, these simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting first look at the BCS picture.
Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and two of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 56 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley, Jeff Sagarin and the Colley Matrix, for what we’d call a 56 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.
We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the four available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact while subbing the AP Poll for the Harris Poll.
The first BCS rankings will be available in October, but for now, this will have to do.
Check out the full simulation worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:
BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/100)/3
Here are the simulated rankings after week four:
Simulated BCS Standings — September 24
|1||Alabama Crimson Tide||.9160|
|3||Florida State Seminoles||.8063|
|6||South Carolina Gamecocks||.7245|
|7||Kansas State Wildcats||.7198|
|9||Notre Dame Fighting Irish||.7151|
|11||West Virginia Mountaineers||.5958|
|15||Oregon State Beavers||.3766|
|16||TCU Horned Frogs||.3729|
←Simulated BCS Rankings Week Three: Georgia up to No. 4, Stanford to No. 5 as USC goes tumbling