Simulated BCS Rankings Week Two: Alabama, LSU continue to lead, while South Carolina springs to No. 5

— September 10, 2012 at 8:31 am | 0 comments


Alabama and LSU might once again lead the simulated BCS rankings after two weekends of action, but after a handful of upsets and surprises, the rankings are anything but stagnant after two weeks of simulating the BCS.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 LSU Tigers
3 Oregon Ducks
4 USC Trojans
5 South Carolina Gamecocks
Scroll down for more

The fearsome foursome — the Crimson Tide, Tigers, Oregon and USC — continue to lead the simulated BCS rankings. USC, despite holding an edge on the Ducks in both polls, are undone by a far weaker showing in the computers for a second straight weekend.

The surprises begin early this week, as South Carolina lands at the No. 5 spot to give the SEC three teams in the simulated top five. The Gamecocks land just ahead of Oklahoma and Michigan State, both of which bow barely more than .01 behind South Carolina.

The Gamecocks were the beneficiaries of level support among all elements, while the Sooner suffer from a No. 23 ranking from the early Sagarin rankings, and Michigan State still trails both teams in the polls.

If any team is truly undone by a component, however, it is No. 10 Florida State, which rests comfortably the top six in both polls, but ranks below the point-receiving threshold in all three available computers, pulling in a zero aggregate computer score.

No. 8 Georgia and No. 9 Kansas State see stark improvements in the computer rankings and polls, in large part as a result of space created by the upsets of the weekend.

These simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting first look at the BCS picture.

Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and three of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 50 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley and Jeff Sagarin, for what we’d call a 50 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.

We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the three available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact while subbing the AP Poll for the Harris Poll.

The first BCS rankings will be available in October, but for now, this will have to do. Enjoy!

Check out the full simulation worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:

BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/75)/3

Here are the simulated rankings after week two:

Simulated BCS Standings — September 10

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9924
2 LSU Tigers .9437
3 Oregon Ducks .8562
4 USC Trojans .8445
5 South Carolina Gamecocks .7178
6 Oklahoma Sooners .7074
7 Michigan State Spartans .7069
8 Georgia Bulldogs .6964
9 Kansas State Wildcats .5337
10 Florida State Seminoles .5183
11 West Virginia Mountaineers .5063
12 Clemson Tigers .4816
13 Stanford Cardinal .3962
14 Virginia Tech Hokies .3755
15 Texas Longhorns .3685
16 Florida Gators .3570




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