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Simulated BCS Standings Week Six: Alabama Claims Top Spot While Oklahoma, LSU Battle For No. 2
Alabama remains atop this week’s simulated BCS rankings, while Oklahoma and LSU take the No. 2 and No. 3 spots, respectively.
The Crimson Tide used first-place votes from three of the five BCS computers (Sagarin, Massey, Colley) to remain ahead of the Sooners and Tigers in this week’s projections. LSU (Billingsley) and Oklahoma (Anderson and Hester) each picked up one first-place computer vote
Now you may be wondering why this simulation differs slightly from the one announced by ESPN themselves. The simulation procedure is slightly different, as explained below, but the important thing is that the difference between the Tigers and Sooners is negligible. The race for No. 2 is a virtual dead heat after six weeks of play, and that’s where we stand as of right now.
Oklahoma State pushes past Boise State for No. 4, giving the Big 12 and SEC two teams each in the top four of the simulation.
Other surprises further down the rankings show Michigan in a surprisingly strong spot, while Oregon gets some tough love from some of the computers.
As a point of reference, the methodology of the BCS Know How simulated rankings is slightly different than normal BCS procedure — mainly because of a lack of full-scale components.
We have the two human elements covered, as both the USA Today Coaches’ Poll and the Harris Interactive College Football poll are available. We do not, however, have all six computer rankings. Peter Wolfe’s rankings will not be released until next week, when the actual BCS rankings are finally made available.
Because of the lack of full-scale computer components, we will not take out the high and low computer rankings, as the BCS normally does. That would only cloud the rankings this early in the season. For now, with a 94.4 percent confidence, if the BCS rankings were released today, this is what they would look like:
Simulated BCS Rankings — October 10th
| Rank | Team | BCS Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | .9634 |
| 2 | Oklahoma Sooners | .9534 |
| 3 | LSU Tigers | .9512 |
| 4 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | .8266 |
| 5 | Boise State Broncos | .8066 |
| 6 | Wisconsin Badgers | .7604 |
| 7 | Clemson Tigers | .7480 |
| 8 | Stanford Cardinal | .7021 |
| 9 | Michigan Wolverines | .6091 |
| 10 | Arkansas Razorbacks | .5636 |
| 11 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | .5512 |
| 12 | Oregon Ducks | .5196 |
| 13 | Illinois Fighting Illini | .5021 |
| 14 | Kansas State Wildcats | .4464 |
| 15 | South Carolina Gamecocks | .4064 |
| 16 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | .3948 |
–
Some thoughts:
- Oregon continues to slide although it keeps winning, finding itself all the way at No. 12 this week.
- Clemson and Wisconsin swap places even though the Badgers were idle. No much to the switch, though, as the two are separated by less than .0200.
←Harris Interactive Poll Week Six: LSU Debuts at Top Spot
USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Seven: LSU, Alabama Make Up Ground on No. 1 Oklahoma →
5 Comm
2011-10-10
16:08:05
So, even before it comes out, the BCS is decided. Oklahoma plays the winner of Alabama-LSU and everyone else doesn't matter. The differential between the top 3 and everyone else is far too large to make up even if any of #4-#7 go unbeaten. A true playoff cannot come soon enough.
2011-10-10
16:48:43
Would Wisconsin taking out both Michigan and Illinois (assuming those two keep up their current paces) gain them enough to push them into the realm of the top 3? What about (however unlikely this might be) Illinois taking out both Wisconsin and Michigan in the regular season, and then beating Nebraska or Michigan again in the Big Ten championship game?
2011-10-13
17:31:32
Since Wisconsin is clearly situated well in the human polls (as opposed to the past when they never were), if Illinois/Penn State/Michigan State keep winning, that will definitely help. And if michigan can go undefeated or at least nebraska win every game except for michigan, and then wisconsin wins the big 10 championship against an undefeated michigan or 1 loss nebraska, that could easily vault them high enough in the computers.
Wisconsin just needs Oklahoma to have some trouble (even if they don't lose) and to keep dominating to have a chance to leap frog, since we know either lsu/alabama have to lose at least one game. And either oklahoma/ok state have to lose that game, and boise state will keep sliding down the computers as the season continues.
This is Wisconsin's chance to shine. They just have to win one game at a time. I know the BCS too well and the computer calculations to give up on them this easy. It's college football, crazy shit will happen
2011-10-13
17:37:55
Also, SEC wise, I could easily see a scenario where both LSU and Alabama have one loss. It is very hard to go undefeated in the SEC, the last two seasons have been statistical anomalies:
2010 - Auburn 14-0
2009 - Alabama 14-0
2008 - Florida 13-1
2007 - LSU 12-2
2006 - Florida 13-1
2005 - LSU 11-2
2004 - Auburn 13-0
2003 - LSU 13-1
2002 - Georgia 13-1
2011-10-15
15:17:50
John, actually OU (4) plays OSU (3) also. So the top 4 play each other. Not that it rids us of the need for playoffs but #4 does control its destiny by defeating #2.