Oh what could have been.

We waiting weeks for this weekend to come, hoping that it would deliver the drama and intrigue that the rest of the season was missing, and it did not dissapoint.

Texas, playing in what was supposed to be a cakewalk of a Big 12 Championship Game instead needed instant replay on the clock and a 46-yard field goal that just sneaked in the uprights to clinch victory and a likely shot at the national title game.

Alabama and Florida were supposed to play in the season’s most intriguing game. Instead what we got was an Alabama romp, blowing out the Gators and likely clinching their shot at the national title.

So it’s likely that we’ll get that SEC Champ vs. Texas game when the last BCS standings are released tomorrow.

But it could have been much different.

If Texas had lost, we would have entered one of the messiest final BCS rankings in the system’s history, but we avoided that by the slimmest of margins.

So here’s our reality for tomorrow, and what we know so far:

• We know that Oregon and Ohio State will make the Rose Bowl game and continue the Big Ten vs. Pac-10 rivalry.
• We know that Cincinnati will receive a BCS bowl bid, we just don’t know from where.
• We know that Georgia Tech is going to get a bid to the Orange Bowl with their victory over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, as the bowl and the conference have ties that allow for the conference champion to receive an automatic bid there.
• We are almost 100% sure that Alabama and Texas will meet for the national title game after winning every game they needed to in order to get to the biggest game of the season.
• We can also be pretty sure that Florida will receive a Sugar Bowl bid despite losing the SEC Championship Game, as the Sugar Bowl will likely want an SEC team despite the SEC Champ going to the National Title Game.
• Another thing that’s guaranteed: TCU will get a BCS bowl bid due to the BCS’s automatic bid qualifying policy for non-BCS schools.

So the six BCS conference bid are set, and two at-large bids are also nearly set in stone.

That leaves two openings. Iowa, Penn State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, LSU and BYU will all likely be eligible tomorrow.

It seems like the Big Ten teams that trail behind Ohio State; Iowa and Penn State, will be one of the at-large selections. The other selection cannot be a Big Ten team, but could be any of the other teams mentioned.

If logic holds up, Boise State would receive that bid, and we at BCS Know How project that they will in fact get that final bid.

Here’s a look at what the BCS standings might look like when they are released tomorrow:

Projected BCS Standings December 6th

We went into this weekend hoping for some upsets, and while we got a couple of interesting ones, it didn’t change a whole lot at the top of the BCS standings.

The upsets came in the final weekend of November, and the final full weekend of college football action as this unusually upset-free season comes to a close.

Georgia Tech – already having secured a spot in the ACC Championship Game – and knowing a BCS bowl bid is the best they could do, overlooked a very game Georgia team and fell to the Bulldogs in the rivalry game.

In Bedlam, Oklahoma State, who had a lot more riding on the game than Oklahoma did – looking for a BCS bowl at-large bid – slipped terribly, not able to score a single point and falling to the Sooners 27-0.

No. 9 Pittsburgh, who had been looking towards a Big East showdown with the Cincinnati Bearcats, obviously overlooked the Backyard Brawl, and fell to West Virginia on a last second field goal.

Texas and Alabama had some trouble finding victory over the long weekend, but neither actually lost. No harm, no foul, and the SEC Championship as a national semifinal holds true for a second consecutive year, as Florida and Alabama will face off to see who gets to represent the conference in the national title game. The loser of the game, although not happy, will likely still see a Sugar Bowl bid in their future.

Surprisingly, five of the six BCS conferences will hold “conference championship” games, although only three (Big 12, ACC and SEC) actually have official games with such a name.

The Pac-10 and Big East will feature matchups that will decide the conference’s regular season title winners and BCS bowls bids after this weekend’s action was not enough to decide either crown.

The Pac-10 will feature a Thursday Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State, the winner likely headed to the Rose Bowl. The Big East will see an undefeated Cincinnati and the aforementioned Pitt face off for the Big East crown.

But that is all the future, for right now all we can do is project this week’s BCS standings, which will be released after the slate of FOX NFL games tomorrow on the OT show:

Projected BCS Standings November 29th

Sure, Thanksgiving isn’t until next week, but given the opportunity, the nation’s best teams feasted on much weaker opponents on Saturday – meaning yet another week will pass without any change at the top of the BCS.

The top four of the BCS took on four teams on Saturday with a combined 19 wins.

The team with the most wins of the four was an FCS team.

And Florida, Alabama, Texas and TCU reacted appropriately, pasting their opponents in all four games and keeping all of their hopes alive for a national title chance.

Little BCS noise was made at all this weekend, with the top team to lose being the LSU Tigers, who were already counted out of the BCS this year, seeing as though they would be a third SEC team at the party that could only allow two SEC teams in.

In fact, the most important news when it comes to the BCS this weekend came from Clemson and Kansas State – two teams not even ranked in the top 20 – who were both able to secure spots in their respective conference championship games.

Texas also clinched their spot in the Big 12 Championship Game against Kansas State with their win over Kansas, but that spot was long assumed to be going to the Longhorns anyways.

The Pac-10 title picture is now clear, as Oregon State and Oregon are the only teams with chances left to make it to the Rose Bowl after Oregon defeated Arizona and Cal beat Stanford to knock both teams out of contention.

With very little change at the top, the BCS again is going to look pretty familiar tomorrow, but there will be change at the No. 8 position, as the shaky LSU team finally lost.

Without any polling information, here is a quick stab at what the BCS top 8 might look like when released after the first slate of NFL games are complete tomorrow:

Projected BCS Standings November 22nd

To call this season of college football boring would be a terrible, terrible mistake.

To call this past weekend’s serving of college football boring – well that might be a pretty good assessment.

Another weekend goes by, and nothing seems to change in college football. In fact, this weekend, only one top ten team lost to an unranked opponent, No. 9 USC’s shocking home loss to Stanford.

Other than the Trojan egg laying at the LA Coliseum, favorites won out.

The most interesting storyline to come out of the weekend was probably that Ohio State claimed the first BCS bowl bid with their 27-24 overtime victory over Iowa. In clinching at least a share of the Big 10 conference title, the Buckeyes also hold the BCS bid tiebreaker, and will likely head to the Rose Bowl.

The weekend was supposed to be about a threat to TCU’s ascension to BCS glory. That didn’t exactly pan out.

Instead what we got was a really entertaining show from the Horned Frogs, enough that many might call for TCU to jump at least Texas in the next BCS standings. Will it happen?

Likely not, but expect the Horned Frogs to inch closer to the Longhorns in tomorrow’s BCS standings.

We’re inching closer to other BCS bowl bids filling up, especially in the ACC, where Georgia Tech clinched the ACC Coastal Division and a chance to win the conference’s bid for a likely Orange Bowl berth. Clemson is a step away from that game as well after CJ Spiller helped the Tigers win on Saturday.

In the Big East, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both won, setting up an ultimate showdown on the regular season’s final weekend for the conference’s BCS bowl bid, if the two teams can make it there without a conference loss.

Texas, Alabama and Florida all continued their respective marches to their conference title games as well.

So the entire top eight won on Saturday, so tomorrow’s BCS will look mighty familiar to us all, except probably at the eighth spot, where Ohio State is likely to take over for LSU, who was pretty darn close to losing to Louisiana Tech on Saturday, and won’t find any help from the human element or the computer element for that surprisingly close result.

The Buckeyes on the other hand will get help in both areas for beating a previously adored Hawkeye team, especially in the computers.

Without any polling information, here is a quick stab at what the BCS top 8 might look like when released after the end of NFL action on FOX Sunday evening:

Projected BCS Standings November 15th

Three top ten teams lost this weekend, but did you notice? More importantly, will the BCS notice?

True, the losses by No. 4 Iowa, No. 8 Oregon and No. 9 LSU were all important in their own ways, but in truth, the three losses did almost nothing to change what we already knew about the BCS.

LSU’s late loss to Alabama gave the Tide the SEC West crown, and made it all the more certain that an undefeated Tide would face an undefeated Florida Gators team in a defacto BCS Semifinal at the SEC Championship Game.

Iowa and Oregon both needed a lot to happen in front of them in order to think about a chance at the national title, but their losses all but eliminate them from that distant hope.

In fact, the two teams who seemed destined to meet in the Rose Bowl if everything went according to plans are now going to have to battle it out in their own conference for both the Rose Bowl bid and their respective regular season conference championships.

The important teams still in the national title picture remained undefeated – romps by Florida and Texas against overmatched opponents joined them with Alabama in the ranks of the undefeated.

The Longhorns, who last week stormed to the No. 2 ranking in the BCS might actually see it slip away for this week, but as we said last week, that doesn’t really matter. Alabama will likely rise to the No. 2 spot once again on a boost from both the computers and the human polls for beating a highly ranked Tigers team.

Cincinnati, who had to be excited seeing the Hawkeyes slip up to a unranked in conference opponent, almost had it happen to them on Saturday, needing an almost perfect performance from replacement QB Zach Collaros to avoid falling to Connecticut, handing the Huskies their third straight heart breaking loss in a row.

Both Boise and TCU won, and will likely see their BCS rankings unchanged from a week ago, but it almost wasn’t such a ho-hum weekend for the two teams, as Boise had to hold off a late storm from Louisiana Tech to avoid the upset.

Georgia Tech, pride of the ACC, looks to gain most from the bevy of losses from the weekend, but they too almost fell to an unranked Wake Forest team, and needed overtime to get past the Demon Deacons.

Ohio State may yet get another shot at the Big Ten crown following their win over Penn State on Saturday, and will also likely take back a position in the BCS top ten on Saturday on the strength of that victory.

We also may just see a third non-BCS school take a seat in the top twelve teams this week, after Utah handled New Mexico on Saturday. If the Utes do enter the top 12, it will more than likely be at the No. 12 spot. Houston won’t be far behind either.

Although in reality the change won’t mean a whole lot, the BCS will look a little different tomorrow, so here is a quick stab at what the BCS top 8 might look like when released between the early and late games on Sunday:

Projected BCS Standings November 8th

On Halloween, the fear is supposed to come from the costumes, or even the scary movies. But the scariest thing on this Halloween might be what the BCS will look like tomorrow.

Oregon’s upset victory over USC at home, although not completely unexpected, may have some completely unexpected ramifications on what the BCS will look like tomorrow.

Boise State, who zoomed by San Jose State on Saturday, may see the Oregon victory help them back up the BCS standings.

Last weekend, the nation was shocked when TCU bounced past the Broncos in last week’s BCS standings. Assumed to have the BCS bid locked down if they were to run the table, the Broncos instead saw the rug ripped out from under them, and thought they had to claw their way back to the BCS, and hope for a TCU loss.

Now, with Oregon’s victory over the No. 5 Trojans, the computers will likely reward the Broncos with a helpful boost. Oregon’s only loss of the season came at the hands of the Broncos in their season opener, and although both teams know that the Ducks team that night was nothing like it is today, the computers wont see it that way, rewarding the Broncos big time.

TCU, who was also victorious, might see themselves slip down, through no fault of their own, and have the tables turned on their BCS boost from last weekend.

Oregon, will likely jet past a few BCS teams as well, likely including LSU, Cincinnati, and maybe the two BCS buster teams as well, also leaving teams that were victorious over the weekend wondering just what went wrong.

On another front, Alabama, who was idle this past weekend, may just slip to No. 3 in this week’s standings, and Texas may jump over them after a very convincing victory over No. 14 Oklahoma State on Saturday night.

There is no reason for the Crimson Tide to worry, however, as an undefeated record in the SEC, and then a victory over Florida in the SEC Championship Game will more than certainly be enough for them to make it back up to the top two at the end of the season.

Either way, the BCS is sure to look a little different tomorrow, so without any polling information, here is a quick stab at what the BCS top 8 might look like when released after the NFL games on Sunday:

Projected BCS Standings November 1st

As much as the upset is a part of college football, so too is the Houdini-like escape of a national power to avoid such a fate.

On Saturday, we saw not one, but two teams pull exactly that, and let another week go by without any questions about where this college football season is going having been answered.

In fact, only one top-25 team fell victim to an upset from an unranked opponent (Miami), although Michigan State and Tennessee did almost everything in their power to add to that number.

In Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide hosted a very hungry Volunteer team that stifled the Crimson Tide attack that had eaten up other SEC defenses. Missed and blocked field goals held the Volunteers from claiming a lead late in the game, but it seemed to not matter, as they lined up for a game tying field goal with four seconds left.

But Terrance Cody, who had blocked an earlier field goal, worked his magic on the point of attack once again, and blocked a second Daniel Lincoln attempt to save the Tide’s hope for a national title run.

Iowa did not have the convenience of home field advantage to aide in their last second touchdown drive of 70 yards on ten plays, but they used every last tick of the clock to their advantage, saving their season on a Ricky Stanzi touchdown pass with no time left on the clock to send the Hawkeyes to 8-0 for the first time in school history.

Iowa and Alabama were not alone on Saturday as many top teams faced conference opponents who ended up giving them all they could handle, although Miami was the only one to fall. Florida, USC, Utah and West Virginia all struggled for victories, but were able to make good on their favorite status, claiming victories late in their matchups.

TCU-BYU, which had been the story heading into the weekend, turned into a non-contest, with the Horned Frogs holding down Max Hall and the BYU offense, 38-7.

The second BCS standings are due tomorrow, and likely will look very similar to the ones you saw last week, quite simply because no one loss. One change that might just be in the works would be Iowa taking the No. 5 spot away from Cincinnati.

Last week the Hawkeyes were .0001 points behind the Bearcats, and with the Hawkeyes beating a Michigan State team (4-4) with victories over teams like Michigan and Northwestern. Cincinnati, on the other hand, beat Louisville (2-5), a team with a slightly less impressive track record, and will likely see the consequences of that in their computer rankings this week. Without much information on hand, including the very unpredictable nature of the human poll voters, it looks like the Hawkeyes will jump the Bearcats in tomorrow’s BCS standings, but much of the rest of the standings will look very familiar to college football’s faithful.

Without any polling information, here is a quick stab at what the BCS top 8 might look like tomorrow.

Projected BCS Standings October 25th

Well that certainly lived up to the hype.

Just one day before the first BCS standings of the year are released, a day filled with interesting matchups and conference battles delivered drama and excitement around the country. At the end of the day, two top eight teams had fallen. But how close were we to having five fall on Saturday?

Let’s count the ways:

A game-saving tackle by Colt McCoy, a missed field goal, and a flubbed final five yards that fell incomplete, ended the game, and then didn’t, and then did.

Colt McCoy, Heisman candidate extraordinaire, was struggling. He was having one of his worst days as a Longhorn, and he was dragged down with a cold. He had also just witnessed the possible ending of friend Sam Bradford’s college career. And then he threw an interception.

As the only Longhorn DB Brian Jackson had to beat to score, McCoy looked helpless, but a great effort from the senior having a tough day stopped him from scoring, and likely saved the Longhorn’s chances of a national title, and the game ended 16-13 in Texas’s favor.

Alabama took Florida to the brink of defeat, playing right alongside Tim Tebow, his Gator offense and even their defense, driving the field multiple times. But missed field goals doomed the Razorbacks, and a late field goal from the Gators assured victory, 23-20.

And USC, seemingly cruising through Notre Dame again, instead found the Irish driving with a chance to score a tying touchdown, taking advantage of Trojan penalties all the way to the USC five-yard line. An incomplete pass from Jimmy Clausen seemed to end the Irish’s upset bid, but review put a second back on the clock, only for Clausen to throw an errant pass once again, sealing Trojan victory.

Ohio State and Virginia Tech weren’t so lucky, however, and will likely shake up what had been projected BCS standings until this point, but are now the real deal.

The Hokies were a projected No. 3, which certainly wont be the way it looks after they were unable to defeat ACC rival Georgia Tech, instead look for them to possibly fall all the way out of the top 12, with Georgia Tech making an appearance inside the first BCS top 12.

Boise State – who also survived an upset bid earlier this week – Texas and USC should all benefit from the Hokies sudden lack of energy from a team many considered the best one loss team in the nation.

Recently confirmed class of the Big East Cincinnati, Iowa and TCU should all benefit from the Buckeye’s shocking loss to Purdue.

The first official BCS standings are released tomorrow, but until then, here’s a quick stab at what the top 8 might look like without any polling info.

Projected BCS Standings October 18th

If you are looking for THIS WEEK’S projected BCS, please go to the Recap section of the Weekly Update Category, and click on the most recent article. Thanks!
One final week before the first BCS standings means just one final set of projected BCS standings, this week coming straight from the most reliable source for simulating the formula, the BCS Guru.

This time, Florida makes the huge jump to No. 1 that everyone had expected them to already hold at the beginning of the season. This jump was helped by their victory over LSU, whose came in at No. 2 on last week’s projected BCS, and also held the No. 1 spot in all available BCS computer rankings.

Alabama, likely on the strength of their inter conference rivalry game against Ole Miss, stays ahead Texas to claim the number two spot, and Virginia Tech, already considered the best one loss team in the nation, also stays ahead of the Longhorns at No. 3.

Texas does hold steady at No. 4, followed by Boise State, BCS-buster extraordinaire.

Two one-loss teams, USC and LSU come in at No. 6 and No. 7 respectively, as both still have a legitimate shot of making some noise late in the season if both are able to win out.

Three teams which will likely need a little help from the top follow the Tigers, Ohio State, Cincinnati and Iowa will probably need a fair few teams to lose ahead of them to make it into the national title picture.

TCU and Miami (FL) round out the top twelve of the projected BCS standings, and will need more than a little help from here on out.

Next week brings the arrival of the first real BCS standings, but without further ado, the current projected BCS standings, as provided by the BCS Guru, and available at BCS Know How, with a 94.166 percent confidence:

It wasn’t anything terribly exciting, but another weekend in college football passed, and the national picture begins to get a little clearer.

The weekend shaped up to be one filled with tight contests and big scores, but instead what we got was a low-scoring, minimal tension weekend that underwhelmed most college football fans.

The highlight of the weekend’s slate was Florida vs. LSU, a matchup between two of the top teams in the country, and two SEC rivals. The return of Tim Tebow was supposed to amp up the offense and increase the urgency of the game, but in the end, a 13-3 Gator victory seemed telegraphed from the beginning.

True, this will likely knock LSU out of the national title hunt for a while, but the Tigers will get the chance to rebound with victories over Alabama, and then a rematch with the Gators in the SEC Championship Game, if they get that far.

For the Gators, their odd displacement at No. 3 on the projected BCS standings will no longer be an issue, as the victory over LSU, who held the number one spot in all five computer rankings, will boost the Gator’s computer score.

Alabama also survived a SEC matchup with Ole Miss, easily dispatching of the Rebels 22-3 in a defense heavy contest. The Crimson Tide will duel with the Gators for the final number one ranking of the projected BCS, as after next week’s slate of games, the fully functional BCS standings will finally arrive.

Among those who also won on this favorites day; Iowa, who won in thrilling fashion, holding off yet another Tate Forcier comeback attempt in their Big 10 match up; Texas, who fended off a halftime deficit to take control in their victory over Colorado; and Virginia Tech, who continue to make their case as the best one-loss team in the nation.

Unbeatens remained unbeaten, most favorites won out, and the college football world now can only wait for the home stretch of eight weeks, all of which have the BCS to credit for their intensity and drama.

The BCS Know How Newsletter is just one week away! Sign up above to make sure you get the full season’s worth of newsletters delivered right to your email inbox!

Updates will come tomorrow after the human polls are released and the projected BCS will be more clear.

-BCSKnowHow.com