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The Second Non-AQ Team BCS Conundrum
Oregon and Auburn — two undefeated teams from power conferences at the top of the BCS standings. Not too surprising.
TCU, Boise State and Utah — three teams from non-AQ conferences at 3-4-5. Pretty surprising to the average college football traditionalist.
But what does it all mean for the BCS prospects of the three non-AQ teams?
Well, the answers might disappoint some of those team’s faithful.
When the 2011 bowl selection procedure was outlined before the beginning of this season, a new provision was added in the set of rules for qualification as a non-AQ conference school.
The Rose Bowl’s selection would be as thus:
Starting with the 2011 Rose Bowl and extending until the 2014 edition of the granddaddy of them all, the first time the Rose Bowl loses one of its traditional hosts (Big Ten or Pac-10 Champion) to the BCS National Championship Game, and a non-BCS team automatically qualifies for the BCS, that non-BCS team will be selected by the Rose Bowl.
“Great!” thought most supporters of the non-AQ schools, a chance for a non-traditional team to crash the most traditional bowl of them all — the Rose Bowl.
But as the season wares on, this provision could cause a little more trouble than had been expected.
You see, if more than one of these three non-AQ teams finishes the season undefeated, there remains the possibility of one of them getting left out of the BCS altogether.
Yes that’s right, an undefeated BCS top-four team could theoretically be left without a BCS bowl bid, and could be staring down a matchup with a middling Pac-10 team or a Mid-American Conference team in a middling bowl.
Not exactly the national attention that you might expect an undefeated BCS top-four team to get.
Let’s see how this could go down with some scenarios that have been going around the web recently:
Scenario 1 – Brian Murphy / BCS Guru
BCS NGC: Alabama/Auburn vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl: TCU vs. Big Ten Champ
Sugar Bowl: Alabama/Auburn vs. Big Ten Runner Up
Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 Champ vs. Big East Champ
Orange Bowl: ACC Champ vs. Big 12 Runner Up
In this scenario, the SEC Champion is either unbeaten Auburn or one-loss Alabama who beats Auburn and wins the SEC. If either of those scenarios play out, its likely that that team will play for the NCG. Oregon also runs the table and the Big Ten provides two very attractive teams from the group of Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State. TCU beats Utah and remains ahead of Boise in the BCS.
After the NCG takes its teams, the Rose Bowl is awarded the Big Ten champ, and takes the highest ranked non-AQ school, in this case TCU. The Sugar Bowl takes the SEC runner up and in fear of seeing another SEC toppled by a non-AQ passes up undefeated Boise State — instead taking the second Big Ten team. The Orange Bowl takes the ACC Champ and fearing the poor traveling capacity of Boise State (plus a possible rematch between Virginia Tech and Boise) passes on the Broncos too. The Fiesta Bowl takes the Big 12 Champ and is forced to take the last pick Big East Champ.
No Boise State! Where are they headed? The Humanitarian Bowl — which has the first choice of WAC teams. The Humanitarian Bowl is played in Boise on December 18th.
Scenario 2
BCS NGC: Alabama/Auburn vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl: Boise State vs. Big Ten Champ
Sugar Bowl: Alabama/Auburn vs. Big Ten Runner Up
Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 Champ vs. Big East Champ
Orange Bowl: ACC Champ vs. Big 12 Runner Up
This scenario is the same as the last one except Utah beats TCU on Saturday. Utah would be hard pressed to pass the Broncos in the BCS standings and remains at No. 4.
This time, the Sugar Bowl seriously has no interest in seeing Utah beat another SEC runner up, so passes them, while the Orange and Fiesta Bowl are similarly uninterested and unable to take the Utes.
No Utah! Where are they headed? The Maaco Bowl — which has first choice of Mountain West teams. The Maaco Bowl is played in Las Vegas on December 22nd.
Scenario 3
BCS NGC: Alabama/Auburn vs. Boise State/TCU
Rose Bowl: Pac-10 Champ vs. Big Ten Champ
Sugar Bowl: Alabama/Auburn vs. Big Ten Runner Up
Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 Champ vs. Big East Champ
Orange Bowl: ACC Champ vs. Big 12 Runner Up
In this case, the BCS is truly busted, sending a non-AQ team to the championship game against the SEC champion if Oregon loses somewhere down the stretch. The Rose Bowl is no longer required to take a non-AQ as the one automatically qualifying team (Boise or TCU) is sent to the BCS title game and is free to pick the Pac-10 and Big Ten matchup they crave.
Again, where’s the room for the winner of Saturday’s matchup or even Boise if TCU can make it to the championship game? There is no effective room for the second undefeated non-AQ team, and no real reason for the so-called “Cartel” to open a spot for the second non-AQ even though they have one in the title game.
Last year, with just two non-AQ teams showing that they deserved a place among the national title contenders, we got both into the BCS, albeit against each other in the Fiesta Bowl.
Now in 2010 with three teams showing their worth, we could only get one.
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2 Comm
2010-11-07
10:16:02
[...] PAC-10 team. Not according to this site (not that I trust this blog any more than the next guy: The Second Non-AQ Team BCS Conundrum | BCS Know How "The Rose Bowl is no longer required to take a non-AQ as the one automatically qualifying team [...]
2010-11-07
13:35:53
I hope we get TCU or Boise State in the championship game and the other versus Auburn, Oregon, LSU, Stanford or Alabama. Boise State v Oregon and TCU v. Auburn would be great. I think Boise State and TCU would beat most other teams badly - and might beat those teams above badly. On a good day one of the big ten schools might be able to be competitive but I think they would most likely be destroyed. I think even with a loss either TCU or Boise State are no worse than 5th. I am a long time Badger fan, we good this year but good about 15th, not good 7th...